Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 16,932
2 New Jersey 14,848
3 Massachusetts 10,449
4 Rhode Island 9,633
5 Connecticut 8,693
6 District of Columbia 7,737
7 Louisiana 6,539
8 Delaware 5,933
9 Illinois 5,379
10 Maryland 4,674
11 Michigan 4,510
12 Pennsylvania 4,295
13 Nebraska 3,505
14 Indiana 3,310
15 Iowa 3,297
16 South Dakota 3,141
17 Colorado 3,077
18 Mississippi 2,830
19 Georgia 2,799
20 Virginia 2,373
21 Washington 2,194
22 New Mexico 2,046
23 Kansas 2,023
24 Tennessee 2,020
25 New Hampshire 2,015
26 Nevada 1,874
27 Ohio 1,845
28 Alabama 1,772
29 Florida 1,768
30 Utah 1,748
31 North Dakota 1,736
32 California 1,538
33 Wisconsin 1,528
34 Minnesota 1,521
35 Missouri 1,493
36 Vermont 1,455
37 South Carolina 1,347
38 Arizona 1,333
39 Kentucky 1,330
40 Texas 1,222
41 North Carolina 1,218
42 Idaho 1,207
43 Arkansas 1,196
44 Wyoming 1,090
45 Oklahoma 1,061
46 Maine 932
47 West Virginia 711
48 Oregon 691
49 Puerto Rico 616
50 Alaska 505
51 Hawaii 435
52 Montana 426

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 229
2 New York 222
3 District of Columbia 210
4 Delaware 195
5 New Jersey 193
6 Massachusetts 190
7 Nebraska 188
8 Illinois 175
9 Connecticut 159
10 Maryland 154
11 Iowa 130
12 Indiana 116
13 Minnesota 113
14 Wyoming 112
15 Mississippi 97
16 Kansas 84
17 Louisiana 75
18 Pennsylvania 75
19 New Mexico 70
20 Colorado 69
21 Georgia 66
22 Virginia 61
23 North Dakota 57
24 South Dakota 56
25 Alabama 54
26 Kentucky 54
27 New Hampshire 54
28 Wisconsin 53
29 Washington 49
30 Arizona 48
31 California 48
32 Idaho 47
33 Ohio 47
34 Utah 44
35 Michigan 43
36 Tennessee 42
37 Missouri 38
38 Texas 36
39 North Carolina 35
40 Nevada 32
41 Florida 29
42 South Carolina 20
43 Arkansas 19
44 Oklahoma 19
45 Oregon 18
46 Maine 17
47 Puerto Rico 16
48 West Virginia 15
49 Vermont 5
50 Alaska 1
51 Hawaii 1
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,334
2 New Jersey 962
3 Connecticut 762
4 Massachusetts 641
5 Louisiana 450
6 Michigan 425
7 District of Columbia 392
8 Rhode Island 349
9 Pennsylvania 262
10 Maryland 238
11 Illinois 234
12 Indiana 204
13 Delaware 198
14 Colorado 159
15 Mississippi 125
16 Georgia 123
17 Washington 115
18 Ohio 104
19 Nevada 92
20 Minnesota 85
21 Vermont 84
22 Virginia 83
23 New Hampshire 81
24 New Mexico 80
25 Florida 71
26 Alabama 69
27 Iowa 69
28 Missouri 69
29 Kentucky 64
30 Oklahoma 63
31 California 62
32 Wisconsin 62
33 South Carolina 59
34 Arizona 58
35 Kansas 55
36 North Carolina 47
37 Maine 46
38 Nebraska 44
39 North Dakota 40
40 Idaho 37
41 Tennessee 36
42 Texas 33
43 South Dakota 32
44 Puerto Rico 30
45 Arkansas 28
46 West Virginia 28
47 Oregon 27
48 Utah 18
49 Montana 14
50 Hawaii 12
51 Wyoming 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New York 115
2 Connecticut 26
3 New Jersey 25
4 Massachusetts 20
5 Rhode Island 15
6 Maryland 14
7 Pennsylvania 13
8 District of Columbia 12
9 Indiana 12
10 Illinois 9
11 Louisiana 8
12 Mississippi 7
13 Michigan 6
14 New Hampshire 6
15 Delaware 5
16 Ohio 5
17 Colorado 4
18 Georgia 4
19 Puerto Rico 4
20 Alabama 3
21 Iowa 3
22 Minnesota 3
23 South Dakota 3
24 Arizona 2
25 California 2
26 Florida 2
27 Kansas 2
28 Kentucky 2
29 Missouri 2
30 Nevada 2
31 New Mexico 2
32 North Dakota 2
33 Virginia 2
34 Arkansas 1
35 Maine 1
36 Nebraska 1
37 North Carolina 1
38 Oklahoma 1
39 South Carolina 1
40 Tennessee 1
41 Texas 1
42 Washington 1
43 Wisconsin 1
44 Alaska 0
45 Hawaii 0
46 Idaho 0
47 Montana 0
48 Oregon 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 120,082 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 67,798 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 50,634 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 50,025 4 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,896 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 4,820 222 92
Richland South Carolina 2,439 547 82
Pierce Washington 1,765 752 76
Orange California 958 1219 61
York South Carolina 790 1414 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 2,951 1 99
Terrell Georgia 2,462 2 99
Early Georgia 2,453 3 99
Nassau New York 1,713 4 99
Essex New Jersey 1,688 5 99
Richland South Carolina 118 478 84
Pierce Washington 60 790 74
Davidson Tennessee 48 908 71
Orange California 20 1271 59
York South Carolina 18 1312 58

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons